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研究生: 張益菁
論文名稱: 考量需求不確定之單階多廠產能規劃問題—以TFT-LCD產業為例
Single-stage and multi-site capacity planning under demand uncertainty for TFT-LCD Industry
指導教授: 林則孟
James T. Lin
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系
Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 135
中文關鍵詞: 薄膜液晶顯示器產能規劃隨機規劃需求不確定性
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  • TFT-LCD產業有兩個重要之趨勢造成TFT-LCD產能規劃議題變得既重要又非常的複雜:(1)產品類型應用廣,例如:顯示器,筆記型電腦,電視和工業顯示器,造成產品族之種類繁多;(2) 新製程技術的快速發展,造成生產環境為多種類的世代廠區並存的複雜製造環境。另外,TFT-LCD產業需求預測存在高度不確定性,如何考量此不確定性因子已嚴然成為TFT-LCD產業在產能規劃之重要議題。
    TFT-LCD之產能規劃是在淨利潤最大化的目標下,考量相關的限制條件,規劃供給(Supply)與需求(Demand)平衡的問題。本研究將針對TFT-LCD產業產能規劃相關特性限制進行分析,藉由分析供給面(Supply)、需求面(Demand)以及此產能獨特之生產鏈上瓶頸飄移的現象,將TFT-LCD產業之產能規劃議題分類。本研究僅針對TFT 陣列(Array)多廠區產能規劃之決策模式進行研究,不僅建構需求確定性(Deterministic demand)之產能規劃數學模式,而且考量影響產能規劃最重大之不確定的需求(Uncertainty demand),提出一兩階隨機規劃數學模型。
    本研究主要目的為考量需求之不確定性下以及TFT-LCD在陣列製造上,各產品族於不同世代廠區生產的材料利用率、各世代廠區的產能與生產能力限制、生產變動成本、存貨驅動成本等,以最大化利潤為目標,決定陣列各世代廠區最適合生產的產品族集合,與各產品族於各世代廠區之生產數量。當供需不平衡且可用產能小於產能需求時,決策者利用購買瓶頸機台之附屬設備(光罩)來擴充產能,提出一穩健擴充產能計畫。本研究提出兩階隨機規劃模式建構需求不確定性之產能規劃模型,最後利用個案數據驗證需求不確定性比需求確定性之產能規劃模式的淨利潤較高,且利用一結合Monte Carlo simulation的實驗來證明當需求波動劇烈時,建議應使用需求不確定性之產能規劃模式規劃擴充產能計畫會較佳。


    摘要 I 謝誌 II 目錄 III 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究範圍與限制 3 1.4 研究步驟與方法 3 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 產能規劃相關文獻 6 2.1.1 產能規劃問題說明 6 2.1.2 單廠區與多廠區產能規劃問題與比較 15 2.1.3 需求確定性與需求不確定性產能規劃問題比較 18 2.1.4 各種產業之產能規劃問題說明 19 2.2 產能規劃方法相關文獻 21 2.2.1 需求確定性之產能規劃方法 21 2.2.2 需求不確定性之產能規劃方法 21 第三章 TFT產能規劃問題特性分析 33 3.1 TFT產能規劃特性分析 33 3.1.1 供給面(Supply side)特性 33 3.1.1.1 供給之生產系統描述 33 3.1.1.2 各廠區特性說明 34 3.1.1.3 生產鏈上瓶頸飄移 40 3.1.2 需求面(Demand side)特性 41 3.1.2.1 產品特性 41 3.1.2.2 價格特性 46 3.1.2.3 需求特性 46 3.1.3 供給產能與需求預測不平衡 46 3.2 TFT單階層多廠區之產能規劃特性分析 49 第四章 需求確定性下產能規劃問題與模式建構 58 4.1 需求確定性下產能規劃問題定義 58 4.2 需求確定性下產能規劃問題數學模式建構 62 4.3 範例驗證 69 第五章 需求不確定性下兩階隨機模式建構與案例驗證 74 5.1 需求不確定性下產能規劃問題說明 74 5.2 需求不確定性下之兩階隨機最佳化方法說明 76 5.3 兩階隨機規劃數學模式建構 81 5.4 TFT單階多廠區需求不確定產能規劃情境範例與實驗 87 5.4.1 案例情境範例 87 5.4.1.1 情境說明 87 5.4.1.2 範例結果說明 93 5.4.1.3 需求確定性與不確定性之產能規劃問題比較 93 5.4.2 結合Monte Carlo simulation 實例驗證 95 5.4.2.1 情境說明 95 5.4.2.2 實驗步驟說明 96 5.4.2.3 實驗結果分析與比較 100 第六章 結論與建議 103 6.1 結論 103 6.2 建議 103 參考文獻 105 附錄 111

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