本文在建構財務危機預警模型中，考量公司治理 (corporate governance) 及市場趨勢性 (procyclicality) 對公司財務違約機率的影響。傳統的財務危機預警模型大多只考量財報資料及股價相關訊息，而忽略“公司治理”潛在振衰圖亡的功能，以及“市場趨勢性”所帶來的系統性風險。例如，市場趨勢性對金融機構所需計提的資本需求帶來直接的影響外，也間接影響到企業取得資金的難易及成本。結果顯示，好的公司治理降低違約的機率。此外，在模型預測的準確性，加入公司治理後，對於瀕臨發生財務危機的公司，增加了19.35% 的預測能力。而市場趨勢性相關變數對於資金需求較大的公司以及當市場面臨信用緊縮及資金流動性較差時，分別也增加了6.68%及6.50%的預測能力。本研究結果可幫助瀕臨財務危機的公司，了解好的公司治理所帶來的抗壓能力。以及當市場面臨信用緊縮時，可供金融機構作為更準確的信評及授信依據。

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