針對高可靠度產品如何建構一適當衰變模型及精確估計其壽命，為近年來十分被重視之研究課題。本文首先介紹五種非線性衰變模型來描述LED衰變資料，其次本文對此五種模型中之參數進行參數估計、推估產品壽命、求得平均壽命之95%信賴區間及探討各模型之差異性及壽命推估之精確度。文中建立一系列模型優劣之評估指標，以便挑選出適當之衰變模型，最後本文針對此五種模型進行敏感度分析以探討參數與樣本數對於壽命之影響程度。

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