隨著全球暖化和氣候變遷的影響，越來越多國家承諾於 2050 年實現淨零碳排，其中需要在 2030 年減少相較於 2005 年一半的碳排放量，才能將全球溫升控制在 1.5°C 以下。碳稅是減少碳排放的一種有效的方式，但如何確定有效的稅率並評估其可能產生在經濟和社會福利的負面影響，已成為一個重要議題。本研究旨在分析不同產業在不同的碳稅下對 GDP、碳排放、社會福利的影響，並提供決策支援。基於Leontief的投入產出均衡理論和 Cobb-Douglas 生產理論，採用模糊多目標規劃模型分析在不同碳稅情境下三個目標的實現情況和產業結構。為了闡明決策者對決策的偏好，採用網路分析程序法（ANP）並進行敏感性分析以確保穩健性。分析結果可以幫助決策者評估不同碳稅情境的長期影響，並選擇最合適的稅率，進而製定相關政策以實現 2030 年和 2050 年的目標。本研究透過台灣的產業進行說明和驗證。

With the impact of global warming and climate change, net zero carbon emission by 2050 has been committed by a growing coalition of countries, of which about half of emission cuts from 2005 and must be in place by 2030 to keep warming below 1.5°C. Carbon tax is a way to reduce carbon emissions, but how to set an effective tax rate and assess its possible negative effects, such as economic and social welfare, has become a significant issue. This study aims to analyze the impact of different carbon tax scenarios on GDP, carbon emissions, social welfare with different industries, and to provide decision support. Based on Leontief's Input-Output Equilibrium Theory and Cobb-Douglas Production Theory, a fuzzy multi-goal programming model has been adopted to analyze the realization of the three goals and industrial structure under different carbon tax scenarios. To utilize the scenarios for policy making, a decision support procedure is proposed and demonstrated by using Taiwan domestic industries as an example. The decision maker’s preference is first articulated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Then, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to test the robustness. The results of the analysis can be shown to effectively assist a policymaker in assessing the impact of different carbon tax scenarios in the long run, and then to formulate relevant policies on tax rate to achieve the goals at 2030 and 2050.

王小璠 (2005) 多準則決策分析 滄海書局
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