研究生: |
黃家祺 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
應用實質選擇權於公私合夥區段徵收開發模式之研究 An Application of Real Options on the the model of Zone Expropriation in Public Private Partnership Project |
指導教授: | 林哲群 |
口試委員: |
楊屯山
張焯然 蔡錦堂 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經營管理碩士在職專班 Business Administration |
論文出版年: | 2012 |
畢業學年度: | 100 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 69 |
中文關鍵詞: | 公私合夥 、區段徵收 、淨現值 、二項式實質選擇權 |
相關次數: | 點閱:3 下載:0 |
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政府由於財政拮據因素以及吸引民營企業的執行效率,引進公私合夥參與公共建設(PPP方式)以取得公共建設達成公共利益,此種公私合夥參與公共建設最常見為BOT方式,然而以公私合夥參與區段徵收之模式實屬一創新方式,也成功地完成了台南科學園區的開發,後續的新竹科學園區第三期開發案以及民國101年始推動並完成廠商徵選的桃園國際機場捷運A7站開發案均屬此種性質的投資專案。此種結合BT以及BOO的開發模式,民間初期投入成本高且投資期長,未來之收益係以取得抵價地回收,此種完全自償性之投資案,因在政府規劃階段風險性較高,政府往往給予取得開發案之特許投資人有對於計畫的遞延、擴充或終止決策的選擇權利,以提高計畫的可行性。面對如此不確定極高之投資方案,如以傳統資本預算方式進行評估,將無法有效將投資決策彈性給估計進去,因此常忽略了選擇權價值,錯失了可行的投資方案。本研究以二項式選擇權訂價模式,分析此種開發模式中特許投資人擁有之各項選擇權價值對投資專案的影響,以及針對各項變數作敏感度分析。並舉新竹科學園區第三期開發案為例,先使用現金流量分析法作為財務規劃評估之基礎,發現淨現值為負的投資案,再加入遞延、放棄及擴張選擇權之價值後,其擴張選擇權價值轉為正值,呈現出該投資案之真正價值。
Due to the fiscal factors and with the aim of attracting the private sector, the government has introduced Public-Private Partnership (PPP) into public infrastructures. Infrastructure projects are thus procured and public benefits achieved. This type of Public-Private Partnership and public infrastructure are most commonly seen in BOT. However, applying the Public-Private Partnership into zone expropriation is an innovative method, and it is the reason for the development of Southern Taiwan Science Park being a success. The subsequent development of Hsinchu Taiwan Science Park Phase III and the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport Access MRT System A7 Station TOD, which was promoted in 2012, both belonged to this type of investment project. By combining the development method of BT and BOO, the initial investment from the public sector is high, and with a longer investment period. The future revenue will come in the form of the acquisition of the Pay-for-Land. The viability of the project may be improved if the host government offers concessional investors the options or rights to wait or expand or terminate the project in response to environmental changes. When facing investment projects with high levels of uncertainty, evaluations using conventional capital budgeting fails to take into consideration the flexibility of investment decisions, therefore, it often neglects the value of the option, which may result in feasible investment projects been left out. The present study applies the Binomial option pricing model. Investors who are entitled to options, which values affect the investment project, are analyzed. Sensitivity analysis on each variable are also performed. Using the Science Park III as an example; when using the cash flow analysis as the foundation for the financial evaluation, the net present value of the investment project turns out to be negative. When adding in the value of the option to wait, terminate or expand, the value of the “expand” option turns positive, reflecting the real value of the investment project.
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