研究生: |
曾郁純 Tseng, Yu-Chun |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
破產回復與再破產時產業內的傳染效果 ---信用違約交換市場之實證研究 Contagion Effect on Intra-industry when Firms Emerge from and Refile for Chapter11 -- Evidence from the CDS Market |
指導教授: |
張焯然
Chang, Jow-Ran |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 計量財務金融學系 Department of Quantitative Finance |
論文出版年: | 2010 |
畢業學年度: | 98 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 24 |
中文關鍵詞: | 傳染效果 、信用違約交換 |
外文關鍵詞: | contagion effect, CDS market |
相關次數: | 點閱:3 下載:0 |
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當公司發生重大財務危機時,會對其他公司造成正面和反面的影響,在事件發生的前後期間亦會產生不同的影響;而美國破產保護法的設立,使得公司可在期限內進行適當的財務重整,以達到恢復健康營運目的。本文第一階段利用美國破產保護法Chapter11探討當公司從破產保護法中回復時,對同產業其他公司產生的競爭和傳染效果,建構同產業其他公司的投資組合,以信用違約交換報價變化來檢測後確實發現在回復後,對其他信用評等較高的公司產生的顯著的信用傳染效果。
第二階段探討當公司從回復後再度進入破產保護法時,是否同前次申請傳遞同樣的信用訊息,同樣的,利用同產業其他公司信用違約交換報價變化的投資組合,發現回復對其他同產業公司會產生顯著的競爭效果。
According to the American bankruptcy code, Chapter 11 provides firms chance to reorganize their financial structure within 120 days under protection. Previous studies have shown the contagion and the competitive effects on rivals when firms filing Chapter 11, measured by Credit Default Swap market. In the first stage, we would like to extend to the following events. After the protection of Chapter 11, about 80% of firms can emerge from bankruptcy and continue to run the business. To provide stronger evidences, we construct a rivals’ portfolio of Credit Default Swap market and use the cumulated change of spread to detect the intra-industry effects and find significant contagion effect on rivals who have higher rating.
In the next stage, we continue our study when the firms file the protection of Chapter 11 again. To compare with the previous filing, we assess the Credit Default Swap spread of the intra-industry portfolios around the refiling date. And the results show that once the firms refile,it contains positive information for rivals and the competitive effect will dominate.
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