簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 林晉仰
Lin, Chin-Yang
論文名稱: 購買力平價之謎與Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson效應:消費者物價指數與生產者物價指數之實證研究
The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect: CPI vs. PPI
指導教授: 黃朝熙
口試委員: 徐之強
黃裕烈
黃朝熙
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 44
中文關鍵詞: 購買力平價生產力偏誤縱橫單根檢定半衰期生產者物價指數消費者物價指數
外文關鍵詞: purchasing power parity, Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, panel unit root test, Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, PPI, CPI
相關次數: 點閱:4下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 購買力平價理論為國際經濟學中的一個熱門議題,許多國際經濟理論建基其上,甚至相關經濟政策的制定也參考購買力平價理論。但是實證研究往往無法提供充分證據支持購買力平價理論,學者認為這可能是Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson效應所導致,此效應將造成實質匯率受生產力影響,因而具有非定態性質。故此,藉由實質匯率探討購買力平價理論的實證研究將因Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson效應而產生偏誤。許多學者認為實證研究應該對實質匯率中的生產力因子進行修正,本文跟隨文獻上數種修正生產力因子的慣用方式,並使用Panel單根檢定檢驗生產力因子是否得以修正。本文驗證修正生產力因子除可使實質匯率更顯著地拒絕單根、求得更短的誤差半衰期、提供更多有關購買力平價理論的證據之外,更進一步發現對某些國家而言,尤其是經濟發展成熟的已開發國家,Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson效應可能不是導致購買力平價之謎的主要原因。


    I.目錄─1 II.本文─3 1.研究動機─3 2.文獻回顧─6 2.1.購買力平價理論─6 2.2.Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson效應─7 2.3.物價指數對HBS效應的修正─10 2.4.時間趨勢對HBS效應的修正─11 2.5.實證模型的修正─12 3.實證模型、研究方法與工具─14 3.1.實證模型─14 3.2.研究方法─16 3.3.時間序列計量工具─18 4.實證結果與資料描述─21 4.1.實證資料─21 4.2.消費者物價指數與生產者物價指數之比較─22 4.3.實質匯率與時間趨勢之研究─22 4.4.排除HBS效應─24 4.5.實證涵義與穩健性─27 5.結論─31 III.附錄─33 表一、Panel單根檢定─CPI與PPI─33 表二、生產力對實質匯率之影響─34 表三、Panel單根檢定─去時間趨勢─35 表四、半衰期─去時間趨勢─38 表五、LR檢定─37 表六、Panel單根檢定─HBS調整─38 表七、半衰期─HBS調整─39 表八、單根檢定─HBS調整項─40 表九、生產力變動與半衰期變動─41 IV.參考文獻─42

    Asea, P. K. and Mendoza, E. G. (1994) “Do long-run productivity differential explain long-run exchange rates?,” IMF Working Papers, 94/60.
    Balassa, B. (1964) “The Purchasing Power Parity doctrine: a reappraisal,” The Journal of Political Economy, 28, 303–319.
    Baxster, M. (1994) “Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?” Journal of Monetary Economics, 33, 5–37.
    Canzoneri, M., Cumby, R., Diba, B. and Eudey, G. (2002) “ Productivity trends in Europe: Implications for real exchange rates, real interest rate and inflation,” Review of International Economics, 10, 497–516.
    Cassel, G. (1918) “Abnormal deviations in international exchanges,” Economic Journal, 28, 413–415.
    Christidou, M. and Panagiotidis, T. (2010) “Purchasing Power Parity and the European Single Currency: Some New Evidence,” Economic Modelling, 27, 1116–1123.
    Chong, Y., Jorda, O. and Taylor, A. M. (2010) “The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Real exchange rate and their long-run equilibrium,” NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15868.
    Choi, I. (2000) “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249-272.
    Coakley, J., Kellard, N. and Snaith, S. (2005) “The PPP debate: Price matters!,” Economic Letters, 88, 209–213.
    Cuddington, J. T. and Liang, H. (2000) “Purchasing Power Parity over two centuries?,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 753–757.
    Engel, C. (1999) “Accounting for US real exchange rate changes,” Journal of Political Economy, 107, 507–538.
    Engel, C. (2000) “Long-run PPP may not hold after all,” Journal of International Economics, 51, 243–273.
    Engel, C. and Rogers, J. H. (2001) “Deviations from purchasing power parity: causes and welfare costs,” Journal of International Economics, 55, 29–57.
    Froot, K. A. and Rogoff, K. (1995) “Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates,” Handbook of International Economics (Eds) K. Rogoff and G. Grossman, North Holland, Amsterdam.
    Harrod, R. (1933) International Economics, Nisbet and Cambridge University Press, London.
    Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003) “Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,” Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
    Javorcik, B. S. (2004) “Does foreign direct investment increase the productivity of domestic firms? In search of spillover through backward linkages,” American Economic Review, 94, No.3, 605–627.
    Kravis, I. B. and Lipsey, R. E. (1988) “National price levels and the prices of tradables and nontradables,” American Economic Review, 78, No.2, 474–478.
    Levin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. J. (2002) “Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,” Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24.
    Lothian, J. R. (1990) “A century plus of yen exchange rate behavior,” Japan and The World Economy, 2, 47–70.
    Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. P. (1996) “Real exchange rate behavior: the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries,” Journal of Political Economy, 104, 488–510.
    Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. P. (1997) “Real exchange rate behavior,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 945–954.
    Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. P. (2000) “Purchasing Power Parity over two centuries: strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 759–764.
    Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. P. (2008) “Real exchange rate over the past two centuries: How important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect?,” Economic Journal, 118, 1742–1768.
    Marcela, S., Gadea, M.D. and Serrano, J. M. (2003) “PPP and structural breaks. The peseta-sterling rate, 50 years of floating regime,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 613–627.
    Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999) “A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-52.
    Madsen, J. B. (2007) “Technology spillover and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries,” Journal of International Economics, 72, 464–480.
    Ng, Serena. And Perron, P. (2002) “PPP may not hold after all: A further investigation,” Annals of Economics and Finance, 3, 43–64.
    Obstfeld, M. (1993) “Model trending real exchange rate,” CIDER working paper, No. C93–011.
    Papell, D. H. and Prodan, R. (2006) “Additional evidence of long –run Purchasing Power Parity with restricted structural change,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 38, No.5.
    Parsley, D. C. and Wei, S. (2007) “A prism into the PPP puzzles: The micro-foundations of Big Mac real exchange rate,” Economic Journal, 117, 1336–1356.
    Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A simple unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265–312.
    Rogoff, K. (1996) “The Purchasing Power Parity puzzle,” Journal of Economic Literature, 34, 647–68.
    Samuelson, P. A. (1964) “Theoretical notes on trade problems,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, 145–54.
    Taylor, A. M. (2002) “A century of Purchasing Power Parity,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 139–50.
    Taylor, A. M. and Taylor, M. P. (2004) “The Purchasing Power Parity debate,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 135–58.
    Taylor, M. P. (2006) “Real exchange rate and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought,” Applied Financial Economics, 16, 1–17.
    Wu, J. and Chen, P. (2006) “Price indices and nonlinear mean-reversion of real exchange rates,” Southern Economic Journal, 73, No.2, 461–471.
    Wu, J., Chen, P. and Lee C. (2009) “Purchasing Power Parity, productivity differentials and non-linearity,” The Manchester School, 77, 271–287.
    Xu, Z. (2003) “Purchasing Power Parity, price indices, and exchange rate forecasts,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 105–35.

    中文參考文獻:
    吳致寧(1994),「匯率與單根—台灣之實證研究」,經濟論文,22 (1),101–103。
    陳志詳(2003),「實質匯率之探討─以OECD國家實證研究」,國立中山大學中山學術研究所碩士論文。

    無法下載圖示 全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校內網路)
    全文公開日期 本全文未授權公開 (校外網路)

    QR CODE