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研究生: 許瑜庭
Hsu, Yu-Ting
論文名稱: COVID-19疫情下,股票市場和不動產投資信託市場波動性之比較
The comparison of volatility between stock market and REIT market during the COVID-19 epidemic
指導教授: 林哲群
Lin, Che-Chun
蔡怡純
Tsai, I-Chun
口試委員: 張焯然
Chang, Jow-Ran
楊屯山
Yang, Twan-Shan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 計量財務金融學系
Department of Quantitative Finance
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 44
中文關鍵詞: 波動性GJR-GARCH模型新型冠狀病毒股票不動產投資信託
外文關鍵詞: volatility, GJR-GARCH model, covid-19 epidemic, stock, REITs
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  • 本文利用雙門檻Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) 模型探討新型冠狀病毒疫情對票市場和不動產投資信託市場波動性的影響,藉此窺探兩市場上的風險如何改變,並且進行比較。本文以美國市場為研究標的,並以疫情發生前後一年(2019-2020)的S&P500股價指數和FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs指數為研究樣本,代表股票市場和不動產投資信託市場。實證結果發現股票市場和不動產投資信託市場之波動性皆受新型冠狀病毒疫情所影響而增加,且股票市場波動受影響較大,代表在疫情期間,不動產投資信託市場風險較低。


    To explore the impact of the covid-19 epidemic on the risk of the stock market and the real estate investment trust (REIT) market, this paper uses GJR Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) model to capture the volatility of two markets. This research takes S&P500 index and FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs index as samples to analysis. The empirical results shows that the volatility of stock and REITs both increase, which means that the risk of two markets rises after the outbreak of covid-19. Moreover, the stock market increases more volatility than the REIT market, which implies investing in REIT market is much safer during the covid-19 epidemic.

    摘要 I Abstract II 序言 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 前言 1 第二節 研究目的 8 第二章 文獻回顧 10 第一節 比較股票市場和房地產市場 10 第二節 不動產投資信託之特性 12 第三節 疫情影響 14 第三章 研究方法 19 第一節 GJR-GARCH 模型 19 第四章 資料與實證結果 24 第一節 資料來源 24 第二節 基本統計量分析 27 第三節 簡單迴歸模型 30 第四節 單根檢定 31 第五節 ARCH 效果檢定 33 第六節 GJR-GARCH 模型 34 第五章 結論 37 參考文獻 39 中文文獻 39 英文文獻 39

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