研究生: |
胡婉琪 Wan-Chi Hu |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
TFT-LCD面板業之需求預測方法論 Demand Forecasting Methodology for TFT-LCD Panel Industry |
指導教授: |
林則孟
James T. Lin |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management |
論文出版年: | 2006 |
畢業學年度: | 94 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 140 |
中文關鍵詞: | 一致性預測 、需求規劃 、TFT-LCD 、迴歸分析 、時間序列模式 |
外文關鍵詞: | Consensus forecast, Demand planning, TFT-LCD, Regression analysis, Time series analysis |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
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本研究以TFT-LCD面板製造商為實證研究對象,應用TFT-LCD產品階層結構的特性,輔以層級式預測理論,建立需求預測方法論,以期整合TFT-LCD市場需求量的預測與企業銷售預測,作為未來TFT-LCD面板廠需求規劃之參考。
本研究提出之需求預測方法論共包含四個階段:首先針對整體產業市場需求進行評估,考量經濟發展與社會指標等外部驅動因素,建立迴歸預測模型;接著預測企業市場佔有率,用以衡量企業在市場的競爭力;再以適合產品眾多的時間序列模型推估企業銷售需求;最後藉由「組合預測」整合多維度預測、獲得較充分的資訊,產生準確度高的一致性預測(consensus forecast)結果。
不同於過去文獻從流程方面來探討需求規劃協同議題,本研究考量理論與實務,參考不同資訊建立不同維度的預測模型,並藉由實際面板製造商的出貨資料進行驗證分析,結果顯示本研究所提之需求預測方法論,可得到準確度高的一致性預測結果,提供面板製造商一套有效的需求規劃方法之參考。
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