本研究將透過租金房價比分析，利用預期房屋價格變化率計算出台北市房市泡沫比例，並且將以情緒因子對於房屋價格泡沫比例進行預估，以此找出情緒因子對於房市泡沫之間的關係。研究方法為利用向量自我迴歸模型(Vector Autoregression Model, VAR Model)計算出預期房屋價格變化率，輔以卡門濾波修正估計值，並且利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)將多維變數降維至一維，藉此以情緒因子捕捉房市泡沫變動率。結果顯示情緒因子可以捕捉房市泡沫變動率，因此本研究建議未來進行房市泡沫相關研究時，情緒因子是不可避免的重要因子。

This article makes a inspection on housing bubble through equilibrium of user cost and rents. The housing bubble ratio of Taipei housing market is determined by the expectation of housing price. To find the correlation between housing bubble and sentiment factor, housing bubble was estimated by factors, and the expectation of housing price is measured by vector autoregression model, and calibrated by Kalman Filter. Macroeconomic variables was dimensionally reducted by principle component analysis. The result shows it has statistical evidence that housing bubble has correlation with sentiment factor. Hence, sentiment factor in the research in real estate is unignorable and effective in measuring housing bubble.

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