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研究生: 陳卉渝
Chen, Huei-Yu
論文名稱: 估值管道、淨國外資產與匯率
The Valuation Channel, Net Foreign Assets, and the Exchange Rate.
指導教授: 郭俊宏
Kuo, Chun-Hung
口試委員: 張俊仁
Chang, Juin-Jen
黃朝熙
Huang, Chao-Hsi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 41
中文關鍵詞: 估值效果超額報酬率調整超額報酬率匯率外幣曝險
外文關鍵詞: Valuation effect, Excess return, Adjusted excess return, Exchange rate, currency exposure
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  • 本文首先闡述了估值效果的意義及其合理計算方式,我們以亞洲四小龍為研究對象,並與七大工業國進行比較,探討過去 20 年來影響淨國外資產變動的主要因素。迴歸結果顯示,匯率變動和國內外經濟成長率的差異是影響估值效果的主要原因。同時,我們提出了一種調整後超額報酬率指標,藉此能更直觀地衡量估值效果對淨國外資產的影響。此外,本文發現亞洲四小龍與七大工業國的國際投資部位,其外幣曝險指標均為正值,這意味著當本幣貶值時,這些國家將產生正的估值效果,有利於一國淨國外資產累積。此外,由於亞洲國家的外幣曝險程度高於七大工業國,因此我們認為亞洲國家有抑制匯率升值的動機,因估值管道可改善其淨國外資產的巿場價值。


    This paper first explains the significance of the valuation effect and its reasonable calculation method. We focus on the Four Asian Tigers as our research subjects and compare them with the G7 countries to explore the main factors influencing changes in net foreign assets over the past 20 years. The regression results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations and differences in domestic and international economic growth rates are the primary factors affecting the valuation effect. Additionally, we propose an adjusted excess return rate indicator that provides a more intuitive way to measure the impact of the valuation effect on net foreign assets. Furthermore, the paper finds that the foreign currency exposure indicators of the international investment positions of both the Four Asian Tigers and the G7 countries are positive. This implies that when the local currency depreciates, these countries will experience positive valuation effects, benefiting the accumulation of net foreign assets. Moreover, due to the higher level of foreign currency exposure in Asian countries compared to the G7 countries, we believe that Asian countries have a motive to curb currency appreciation, as the valuation channel can enhance the market value of their net foreign assets.

    摘要 ......................... 2 Abstract ..................... 3 致謝 ......................... 4 第一章緒論 ................... 1 第二章文獻探討................. 4 2.1 經常帳觀點................. 4 2.2 估值效果觀點............... 6 第三章淨國外資產與估值效果....... 8 3.1 資料來源與計算.............. 10 3.2 估值效果的分解.............. 15 3.3 淨國外資產的超額報酬率....... 16 3.4 調整後超額報酬.............. 22 第四章影響估值效果的因素..........24 4.1 估值效果與匯率變動...........24 4.2 迴歸模型與結果...............29 第五章結論 ..................... 33 參考文獻........................ 35 附錄A.......................... 38 附錄B.......................... 40

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