對於半導體製程科技業而言，產能規劃與管理受到需求預測準確性及需求變動的影響很大，而為了有效利用產能及資本投資，再加上產能建置的提前準備時間，因此必須針對未來一段時間內的需求進行預估，以便作為與產能規劃、設備採購與產能建置相關之決策的基礎。其中，景氣程度以及公司生產策略的變動經常影響顧客訂單的數量，且因應市場對高科技產品之強烈需求半導體市場規模日益擴大，積體電路製程精密度隨著時代演進而更加地複雜，且新製程推出的速度越來越快、製程的生命週期隨著新製程的推出而呈現右偏的趨勢等，造成需求預測的複雜性。
因此，本研究針對半導體製程光罩訂單需求資料，利用系統化的方法針對顧客對半導體光罩需求建立需求預測架構，可以協助公司制定市場行銷計畫以及良好的產能策略，以提昇公司整體獲利。因為半導體製程科技世代間的差異，所以無法完全使用舊的製程技術預測領先製程未來需求。本研究利用系統化及參數化模式建構過程得到廣義指示函數為製程之生命週期趨勢，並搭配時間序列分析過程進行趨勢分解過濾後之需求波動偵測，應用機率性模式與時間序列模式，分析及觀察各半導體製程的需求變化及生命週期型態改變的情況，萃取出有價值的資訊，以作為管理者訂定中長期需求管理規劃的參考依據。本研究並以某半導體廠為實證，以檢驗本研究之效度。驗證結果顯示，本研究所提出之半導體製程光罩需求預測架構可以有效提升預測準確度且提供相同問題定義下之製程光罩預測模式，以提供管理者發展中長期需求預測和產能規劃的決策基礎。

In semiconductor industry, demand fluctuation has great influence on demand management. Demand prediction is necessary to be the foundation of utilization and material planning. Demand variation may be largely caused by prosperity and changed production strategy. Indeed, more complexity of the number of transistors on a square centimeter of silicon and high speed of new technology development because of advanced products requirements increased. It leads to long-term technology life cycle with increasing customer orders.
This research aims to develop a demand forecasting framework that consists of general indicatory function acquisition and parametric fluctuation fine-tuning in semiconductor foundry to forecast mask demand. It consists of a probability model for modeling technology life cycle and time domain approach for demand variation detection. An empirical study was conducted to validate developed demand forecasting framework. The result showed proposed forecasting framework can promote forecasting accuracy and provide a general mask demand forecasting model under the same problem definition to reduce decision uncertainty. It can provide valuable information for managers to support their decisions for demand forecasting and capacity planning.

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