研究生: |
林都 Lin, Du |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
以動態產業系統探討全國產業經濟永續發展之策略 Dynamic Industrial System Approach to the Industrial Sustainability Development Based on National Economy |
指導教授: | 王小璠 |
口試委員: |
王小璠
蘇哲平 楊致行 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management |
論文出版年: | 2012 |
畢業學年度: | 100 |
語文別: | 英文 |
論文頁數: | 101 |
中文關鍵詞: | 永續發展 、產業關聯表 、時間序列分析 、動態產業系統 、產業策略 |
外文關鍵詞: | sustainability development, input and output analysis, time series analysis, dynamic industrial system, industrial strategies |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
生長於宇宙中獨一無二的美麗星球,對於每一寸土地,有著不可磨滅的依賴感情;身為地球的一份子,保護提供我們資源的星球,是我們的責任。而石化能源的逐漸耗竭和溫室效應的議題將對於地球造成時代性的衝擊與巨變。因此,本研究主要是以國內經濟的角度探討環境與經濟永續經營的產業策略。
自從諾貝爾得主經濟學家Leontief於1936年提出產業關聯表以幣值的方式量化所有產業之間的交易量,表現總體經濟系統中產業彼此之間的投入及產出量之後,各國政府相繼使用產業關聯表統計國內產業結構作為經濟建設之依據。
本研究結合產業關聯分析和時間序列分析提出完整的動態產業系統模式,並根據政府不同的節能減碳目標設定不同的情境。以台灣為實際案例,將所有產業劃分成9個我們有興趣的產業別,建立動態產業系統,預測未來產業的關聯狀態到2025年,其中包括了產業供給需求結構、各產業佔總體國民生產總額比例、產業影響度及敏感度等。因此,我們可以觀察各產業投入、發展和影響的趨勢提出節能減碳策略,提供政府制訂相關的因應產業政策之參考,以達到環境與經濟永續共存的雙贏結果。
As human beings living in the so-called “blue planet,” our main responsibility lies in protecting the earth and its resources. The exhaustion of petrochemical energy and the greenhouse effect have caused huge impacts on our lives. With these in mind, specifically their impact on the environment and the economy, this study discusses the coping strategies used in dealing with the industrial sustainability issues from a national viewpoint.
Since the Nobel economist Wassily Leontief first proposed the input-output analysis to investigate the inter-relations of domestic industry sectors in 1936, many governments have conducted regular surveys to establish the industrial input-output tables for statistical purposes. Each table transforms business from every industry into quantitative input-output relations in a national-scaled economic system.
In this study, we propose a Dynamic Industrial System (DIS), which combines the input-output analysis with the time series analysis. Furthermore, we consider different scenarios for energy conservation and carbon reduction to facilitate the strategy development of the industrial sectors.
The case of the Taiwan economy is adopted to illustrate the proposed system. The proposed DIS is applied by classifying all domestic industries into nine sectors. Then, the time series analysis is conducted to predict the related input and output factors up to the year 2025. This includes the structure of supply and demand, industrial structure, the degree of industrial influence and sensitivity, and so on. Thus, we manage to observe the development trend of each focal industry sector included in this work. By considering the different scenarios and observing the changes in the industrial input, effect and development, proper industrial strategies are developed through which a government can attain a win-win situation in both the environment and the economy.
[1]行政院主計處,綠色國民所得網站 , http://win.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbas03/ca/green/index.html
[2] 陳旭昇,時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用,東華書局(2007)
[3] 楊亦農,時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用,雙葉書廊有限公司(2009)
[4] 行政院主計處,產業關聯表編制報告,http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1 (2010)
[5] Box, G. E., G. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel (1994), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 3rd ed., New Jersey: Prentice-Holland
[6] Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Sustainable energy police convention, 2008
[7] Chambers, Nicky with Craig Simmons, Mathis Wackernagel, Sharing Nature's Interest: Ecological footprints as an indicator of sustainability, Earthscan, London (2000)
[8] Chang Wen-Ming, “Integrating Green GDP with Input-Output Analysis for the Study of Eastern Region Industrial Developments,” essay of National Cheng Kung University, Urban Planning (2008)
[9] Enders, W, Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: John Willey & Sons, Inc (2004)
[10] Jerzy A. Filar, Jacek B. Krawczyk, “Sustainability Screw: Role of Relative Production and Abatement Time Scales,” Preprint submitted to PNAS (2010)
[11] Kmenta, J., Elements of Econometrics. 2nd ed., New York: Macmillan Publishing Co (1986)
[12] Kwiatkowski, Danis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt & Yongcheol Shin, “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root,” Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178 (1992)
[13] Leotief, W. W., “Quantitative input-output relation in the economic system of the United States” The Review of Economics and Statistics, XVIII, 105-125 (1936)
[14] Ministry of Economic Affairs, National energy conservation and carbon reduction program, 2010
[15] Stock, James H. and Waston, Mark (2001), “Vector autoregressions”, Journal of Economic Perspective, 15(4), 101-115
[16] Wei Jin, Linyu Xu, Zhifeng Yang, “Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint,” Ecological Economics, 68, 2938–2949, (2009)
[17] William E R., “Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity: what urban economics leaves out[J].” Environment and Urbanization, (4):121-130 (1992)