摘要
供應商管理存貨（Vendor/ Supplier-Managed Inventory, VMI/SMI, or Supplier-Owned Inventory, SOI）的應用，提供賣方快速迎合客戶需求與大幅縮短供貨前置時間的解決方案，並能使客戶專注於本業的核心競爭能力，但由於此模式較傳統補貨模式更加複雜，所以其中之決策如買方之需求預測行為、賣方之補貨策略、受到之補貨限制以及雙方協議之安全庫存策略等若設置不當時，對於賣方而言將承擔更大的存貨壓力。故如何提出一套適用於供應商管理存貨模式的預測補貨策略，以降低供應商之存貨壓力，將能有助於供應商具有更大意願配合導入供應商管理存貨的營運模式，亦才是真正達到了供應商管理存貨模式導入的實質意義。
本研究將使用一套有效考量滾動式需求預測之預測補貨策略，由於此補貨策略是以未來期間需求預測資訊進行預計補貨量之決策，故稱之為「預測向前補貨（Forecast Forward Replenishment, FFR）」，並以具有Trade-off特性之績效進行探討，同時滿足最大化服務水準與最小化平均存貨量為考量，透過模擬最佳化之方法找出影響系統之相關因子：需求型態、預測方法、預測頻率、規劃期間、安全庫存策略、最小訂購量、批量訂購與訂單承諾等因子之最佳補貨因子參數組合。接著，本研究透過真實案例公司之歷史資訊，驗證使用本研究歸納之預測補貨策略結合最佳化參數求解之方法，會較業界所使用之傳統補貨策略有更好存貨績效。最後，提出本研究導入FFR策略結合模擬最佳化方法之建議步驟，提供給業界參考。

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