依據2017年美國腎臟登錄系統(United States Renal Data System, USRDS) 年報統計,2015年台灣末期腎臟病(End-stage renal disease, ESRD) 發生率(Incidence) 為476人/每百萬人口, 且透析(Dialysis) 盛行率(Prevalence) 為3,185人/每百萬人口, 此兩項指標皆為世界第一, 遠超過美國與日本等國家。
末期腎臟病病人因腎臟功能受損, 無法自行代謝血中廢物, 故需接受血液透析治療。
對長期血液透析病人而言, 廔管是重要的生命線, 故在透析前必須執行手術建立透析廔管。透析廔管是藉由外科手術將自身的動脈及靜脈接合, 使動脈血液衝向靜脈, 讓靜脈血管管腔膨脹, 且術後搭配握球訓練等, 約1-2個月讓血管成熟(maturation), 而管腔膨脹後的靜脈即為廔管。
廔管狹窄為血液透析的主要問題之一, 因廔管使用頻率高(每週三次), 導致部分病人的廔管容易造成狹窄, 目前評估狹窄的方式, 皆為發生一段時間後, 已經有臨床症狀才被發現, 或必須由專業人員以侵入性方式檢測廔管是否狹窄。若能有簡易且能事先預測廔管狹窄的方法, 病人即可事先安排經皮氣球血管擴張術(Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty,PTA) 疏通廔管, 確保於下次透析前完成疏通, 提升病人安全。
本研究以時域及頻域訊號定義31項關鍵因子, 並以類神經網路預測廔管是否狹窄。
單一因子預測, 以時域訊號特徵值TR(x2 (t′), a = 0.2, c = 0.9)、TR(x2t′ , c = 60)及頻域訊號特徵值F6為最主要的關鍵因子;兩個關鍵因子預測時, 在四次不同組合之預測中, 分別以(1)TR(x2 (t′), a = 0.2, c = 0.9)、F6 (2)TR(x2t′ , c = 70), F9 (3)TR(x2t′ , c = 80), F9(4)WER, F7 之準確率最高, 預測結果皆以整合時域及頻域訊號為佳。

According to the statistics in the 2017 United States Renal Data System Annual Report, the incidence rate of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Taiwan in 2015 was 476 per million people while the prevalence rate of dialysis was 3,185 per million people. Both indices were the highest in the world, way surpassing the figures for the US and Japan.
Due to their damaged renal functions, end-stage renal disease patients are unable to metabolize the waste in their blood and have to undergo hemodialysis. Such patients need areriovenous fistulas to stay alive. Therefore, creation of dialysis fistulas is necessary before patients start to receive dialysis. Hemodialysis fistulas are surgically created communications between the native artery and vein in an extremity to allow blood in the artery to run to the vein and expand the lumen diameter of the vein. After surgery and ball grasping training, blood vessel
maturation takes about 1-2 months and a vein with expanded lumen diameter finally can be used as a fistula.
Narrowness of fistulas is a major problem in hemodialysis. The high frequency of use of fistulas (three times a week) causes the fistulas of some patients to narrow down. So far, narrowing down of fistulas can be discovered only after it has happened for some time and clinical symptoms have appeared or after specialists
conduct invasive inspections to check whether fistulas have narrowed down. If there is an easier method to predict narrowing down of fistulas, arrangements can be made in advance for patients to undergo percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) to open up the fistula and make sure there is no blockage before the following dialysis treatment in order to protect the safety of patients.
In this study, 31 key factors associated with time domain and frequency domain signals are adopted in conjunction with an artificial neural network to predict stenosis of fistulas. The time domain signal eiganvalues TR(x2 (t′), a = 0.2, c = 0.9)
and TR(x2t′ , c = 60) and frequency domain signal eiganvalue F6 are the main key factors in single-factor forecasting. In two-factor forecasting, combining time and frequency domain factors produce good results. The key two-factor in four test are (1)TR(x2 (t′), a = 0.2, c = 0.9)、F6 (2)TR(x2t′ , c = 70), F9 (3)TR(x2t′ , c = 80), F9 (4)WER, F7.

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