研究生: |
蔡明江 Ming-Jiang Tsai |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
高科技產業進行產能擴增決策之評價模式 Valuation of Capacity Expansion Decision of High-Tech Enterprise |
指導教授: |
阮約翰 博士
Dr. John Yuan |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management |
論文出版年: | 2003 |
畢業學年度: | 91 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 49 |
中文關鍵詞: | 企業評價 、高科技產業 、產能擴增決策 、模擬 、敏感度分析 |
外文關鍵詞: | business valuation, high-tech enterprise, capacity expansion decision, simulation, sensitivity analysis |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
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高科技產業進行產能擴增時,由於資金需求龐大,由:一、財務風險的觀點;二、資金需求的觀點;三、競爭力的觀點等三方面考量,除自行擴增產能外,亦可透過合資的方式,以持股的方式掌握產能使用權,如此既可降低投資風險,也可降低短期現金的支出,又可適時適量的增加產能規模以增加競爭力。
本文分析高科技產業進行產能擴增的投資決策流程,並考量資金成本、生產成本、擴增產能成本,以企業評價的觀點,運用現金流量折現法,考量資金的時間價值,建立起在投資流程中各階段相對應的評估模型,包括:一、評估產能規模之模型;二、評估資金結構之模型;三、評估持股比例之模型;而後應用模擬方法進行求解,並運用敏感度分析,可以瞭解不同參數下,對淨現值的影響,此結果將有助於評估者瞭解不同情境下對投資結果的衝擊。
本文旨在提供企業於投資的流程中各決策點建立一相對的定量評估模型與解決方法,而企業合資時同時需考量其他的定性因素,則可在有適當的量化機制後將其納入模型中。
When the high-tech enterprise expands its capacity due to the enormous financing demand, it can expand with joint venture besides with its own investment. By joint venture manufacturing, the enterprise can reduce the risks of investment and short-term capital expense. It also can expand capacity to increase its competitive ability. This thesis is going to analyze the capacity expansion investment decision processes of high-tech enterprises with the constraints of cost of capital, cost of production and cost of capacity acquisition. From the perspective of valuation, by using discounted cash flow method, we develop three different models of relative process including: 1.Evaluative model of capacity expansion. 2. Evaluative model of capital structure. 3. Evaluative model of share holding. Simulation method is using in this article to solve the relative models, and evaluate the impact of net present values under different situations by using sensitivity analysis.
We hope the evaluative models developed in this thesis can provide quantitative models to assist the enterprise increase its values when making the decision of capacity expansion.
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