隨著供應鏈管理(Supply Chain Management, SCM)和製造策略在科技業應用下的蓬勃發展，服務型製造(Service-Added Manufacturing)顯得更為重要。
因此在一般的品牌廠中，售後服務除了自己部份經營外，為了降低整體供應鏈成本大多會選擇外包(Outsource)給售後服務公司，一方面可專注於本業，增加核心價值及競爭力，一方面也可讓售後服務公司全力做好客戶服務以提升客戶對品牌的忠誠度。售後服務公司支援服務流程鏈中的各個環節，提供詳盡的服務方案，包括元件及系統維修、逆物流(Reverse Logistics)、全球物流服務中心和庫存管理、產品生命周期規劃以及綜合資訊科技 (Information Technology, IT)解決方案，在服務過程中常常會遇到產品停產但仍需供應備用物料直到服務終止，此時便須做最終採購決策(Last Time Buy, LTB)買足一次所需的數量，一般作法參考過去需求量(Usage)及未來預估需求量導出購買物料數量，但因為未來需求的不確定性所以容易導致短缺或庫存過剩的問題發生，為了有效解決此問題，本研究建置出一LTB決策架構，以不確定情況下的決策模式及風險決策架構為基礎，使用決策樹(Decision Tree)和序列決策樹(Sequential Decision Tree)為工具搭配LTB決策模型幫助決策者做有系統的LTB決策方案，並以W公司作為個案進行實證研究，以驗證此架構之效度。

Under the great development of application about supply chain management and produce strategy, Service-Added Manufacturing is more impotant.
Thersfore, Brand owner in technology industry may outsource their after-sales service to Service Company in order to lower total supply chain cost. In this way, they can focus on their own core business and on the other hand they can gain customer loyalty though that. Service Company covers various levels of the service process chain and provides total solutions to Brand owner. The service includes full repair capability, reverse logistics, warehouse management, global service center, product life cycle plan and comprehensive IT solutions. During the service period, when product is phased-out, but Service Company still needs to supply enough demands to customers till the service ends. At this moment, Service Company must do Last Time Buy (LTB) for the future demands based on past usage and forecast. However, shortage or excess problems may occur due to high uncertainty of future demands. This research builds up the LTB decision structure based on uncertainty and risk structure. It uses decision tree and sequential tree to help decision makers do systematic LTB decision with LTB decision model. Finally, it takes the real case of W Company for studies and the result shows practical viability of LTB decision structure approach for troubleshooting.

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