摘要
本文的研究乃是以時間序列分析法來探討內生成長模型理論，是否可以普遍用來解釋台灣及東亞經濟體系長期的經濟成長。

實證結果如下：（一）從東亞地區各國成長率的時間序列分析檢定結果看來，很少國家有如內生成長理論所強調的有恆久性變動現象，甚至可說沒有；另外在實質資本投資率方面，其時間序列分析結果，除了緬甸以外，其他11個國家在實質資本投資率上，皆呈現統計上顯著增長。這樣結果暗示AK-style模型對於東亞快速發展地區，其背後長期經濟成長的力量來源，並無法提供良好的預測。（二）對於投資率呈現正向變動趨勢的國家而言，很難找出有其他政策變數（如：政府消費性支出比率及進出口貿易份額比率上）可以直接地抵銷投資率對經濟成長率的影響。從以上總結來看，東亞快速發展地區的大多數國家實質資本投資率，雖然皆呈現出顯著而恆久性的增長，但大多數國家經濟成長率卻沒有很明顯的上升。此外，對於這些投資率呈現正向變動趨勢的國家，也很難找出有其他政策變數，可以直接地抵銷投資率對經濟成長率的影響。這暗示內生成長的理論模型對於東亞快速發展地區，其背後長期經濟成長的動力來源，並無法提供良好的預測。

參考文獻
一、中文部分
陳明郎，1999，「經濟成長」，台北，華泰。
許振明，1997，「總體經濟分析」，台北，茂昌。
二、英文部分
Aghion , Philippe and Peter Howitt , 1992 , A model of growth through creative destruction , Econometrica , 60 (2) , 323-351.
Amsden , A ., 1989 , Asia’s Next Giant：South Korea and Late Industrialization , New York：Oxford University Press.
Bai , J. , R. Lumsdaine , and J.Stock , 1991,Testing for and dating breaks in integrated and cointegrated times series , Working Paper .
Barro , Robert and Jong-Wha Lee , 1993 , International comparisons of educational attainment , Journal of Monetary Economics , 32(3) , 363-394.
Barro , Robert and Xavier Sala-I-Martin , 1991 , Convergence across states and regions Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , 1 , 107-182.
Barro , Robert and Xavier Sala-i-Martin , 1992 , Regional growth and migration：a Japan-United States comparison , Journal of the Japanese and international Economies , 6 , 312-346.
Barro , Robert J. , September 1989 , Economic growth in a cross section of countries , NBER Working Paper 3120.
Barro , Robert J. , October 1990 , Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth , Journal of Political Economy , 98 , 5 , PartⅡ , S103-S125.
Barro , Robert , 1991 , Ecoomic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries , Quarterly Journal of Economics , CVI , 407-43.
Baumal,Willian J. , 1986 , Productivity growth , convergence and welfare：what the long-run data show , American Economic Review , 76(5) , 1072-1085.
Chen , Been-Lon , 1999 , Openness and economic growth：evidence of East Asia and Latin America , Journal of Economic Integration (forthcoming).
Delong , J. , Bradford , 1988 , Productivity growth,convergence and welfare：comment , American Economic Review , 78(5) , 1138-1154.
Dickey , David A. , and W. A. Fuller , 1979 , Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root , Journal of the American Statistical Association , LXXIV , 427-31.
Domar , Edward D. , 1946 , Expansion and Employment , American Economic Review , 137-147.
Fuller , W. A. , 1976 , Introduction to dtatistical time series (New York：John Wiley)
Grossman G. and E. Helpman , 1991 , Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth , Review of Economics Studies , LVIII , 43-61.
Harrod , Roy F. , 1939 , An essay in dynamic theory , Economic Journal , 33-41.
Jones , Charles I. , 1995 , Time Series Test of Endogenous Growth Models , Quarterly Journal of Economics , 495-525.
King , Robert and Sergio Rebelo , 1990 , Public policy and economic growth：developing neoclassical implications , Journal of Political Economy , 98(5) , part2 , S126-S150.
King , Robert G.,and Sergio T. Rebelo , November 1989 , Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model , NBER Working Paper 3185 ,.
Kocherlakota , Narayana R. and Yi , Kei Mu , , February 1996 , A Simple Time Series Test of Endogenous vs. Exogenous Growth Models: An Application to the United States , Review-of-Economics-and-Statistics , 78(1) , 126-34.
Lau, L. J. , D. T. Jamison, S. C. Liu and S. Rivkin , 1993 , Education and Economic Growth：Some Cross-Sectional Evidence from Brazil , Journal of Development Economics , 41 , 45-70..
Lucas , Robert E. , Jr. , 1988 , On the Mechanics of Economic Development , Journal of Monetary Economics , XXII , 3-42.
Maddison , Angus ,1982 , Phases of Capitalist Development , Oxford : Oxford University Press.
Mankiw , N.Gregory,David Romer and David N. Weil , 1992 , A contribution to the empirics of economic growth , Quarterly Journal of Economics , 107(2) , 407-437.
Ramsey , Frank , 1928 , A mathematical theory of saving , Economic Journal , 38 , 543-559.
Ranis , Gustav , 1979 , Industrial development , in Economic Growth and Structure Change in Taiwan：The Postwar Experience of the Republic of China , Water Galensoneds , Ithaca：Cornell University Press.
Rebelo , Sergio , 1991 , Long-run policy analysis and long-run growth , Journal of Political Economy , 99（3）, 500-521.
Romer , Paul M. , 1986 , Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth , Journal of Political Economy , XCIV , 1002-37.
－, 1990 , Endogenous Technological Change , Journal of Political Economy , XCVIII , S71-S103.
Romer , Paul M. , 1990 , Endogenous technical change , Journal of Political Economy , 98 , S71- S102.
Solow , Robert , 1956 , A contribution to the theory of economic growth , Quarterly Journal of Economics , 70 , 65-94.
Summers , Robert and Alan Heston , 1991 , The Penn world table (mark 5)：a expanded set of international comparisons,1950-1980 , Quarterly Journal of Economics , 106(2) , 327-368.
Uzawa , Hirofumi , 1965 , Optimal growth in a two-sector model of capital accumulation , Review of Economic Studies , 31 , 1-24.
World Bank , 1995a , World Development Report , New York：Oxford University Press.
World Bank , 1995b , East Asian Miracle：Economic Growth and Public Policy , New York：Oxford University Press.
Young , Alwyn , 1991 , Learning by doing and the effects of international trade , Quarterly Journal of Economics , 106 , 369-405.