隨著我國進入高齡社會，老人交通事故風險的問題也逐漸受到重視。對此，政府於106年7月1日開始，針對年滿75歲高齡駕駛強制實施定期更換駕照政策，目的是讓不適合的駕駛人停止駕駛，以降低老化所造成的駕駛風險。本研究旨要探討新竹市於政策實施前後，對高齡族群交通事故所造成的死傷人數是否有所影響來評估政策效果。
本文以新竹市24-74歲及75歲以上族群為對照組及實驗組，以差中差迴歸法(Difference in Difference,DiD)分析兩個族群在政策實施前、後各3年期間交通事故平均死傷人數有無差異。另外，運用加權迴歸法的概念調整樣本，以解決新竹市老年人口比例偏低的不具代表性問題。最後再以72-74歲及75-77歲作為對照組及實驗組印證DiD迴歸的結果。
研究結果顯示，該項政策的實施對新竹市高齡駕駛交通事故平均死傷人數未有顯著影響。此外，我們發現新竹市老人平均死傷人數在政策實施之後有些微上升的跡象，推論可能是政策的實施強化了某些不適任駕駛的信心，使他們更願意上路；或者讓某些適合的駕駛過早停止駕駛的緣故，不過這些推論有待更多的證據和研究來支持。

As the aging population in Taiwan grows rapidly, the high risk of traffic accident among older drivers has been considered so that licenses for older drivers (aged greater than 75) are requested to be renewed starting from July 1,2017, to ensure older drivers’ safety. This paper presents a policy assessment, based on the data collected in Hsinchu city, to check what is the effect of the driving-license renewal requisition on aging drivers’ safety.
The data used in this study covers a period of three years before and after the implementation of the policy in the Hsinchu City. We calculated the monthly casualty rates of the traffic accident by age conditions (24-74 vs. ≥75 years), by the method of Difference in Difference (DiD), to estimate the effect of the policy. Furthermore, we use the concept of weighted regression to address the irrepresentable ratio of the elderly population in Hsinchu which is much lower than the aging population ratio in Taiwan. Finally, we examine the robustness of the results by considering different age conditions (72-74 vs. 75-77 years).
There is no evidence that license renewal policy has an effect on the traffic safety of drivers aged greater than 75. Contrarily, average casualty of older drivers’ traffic accidents is slightly raised after the implementation of the policy. That is, the renewal procedure may mislead some of the inappropriate drivers’ over-confidence, and may mis-abolish some of the capable drivers’ driving licenses, though further researches are needed to verify the suggestions.

一、 中文文獻
〔1〕 交通部運輸研究所(2016)《機車交通政策白皮書》。
〔2〕 交通部運輸研究所(2019)《道路交通事故成本推估之研究》。
〔3〕 交通部運輸研究所(2020)《高齡友善交通對策精進方向之初探》。
〔4〕 林豐福、張開國、葉祖宏(2004) 《我國職業駕駛執照考領及持用有效條件管理之探討》，運輸研究所。
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〔6〕 陳惠國、邱裕鈞、朱致遠(2017)《交通工程》，五南出版社，頁502。
〔7〕 張新立、吳宗修、吳坤峯、張開國、葉祖宏、陳聖尹(2014)高齡駕駛人交通安全改善方案之研究。道路交通安全與執法研討會論文。
〔8〕 湯愷檸(2016)捷運通車對大台北地區交通事故影響之實證研究-以土城捷運通車為例。國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。
〔9〕 蔡依靜(2012)需求反應式公共運輸服務評鑑制度之研究。國立臺灣大學土木工程學研究所碩士論文。
〔10〕 蔡娟娟(2017)我國高齡者駕駛執照管理機制之探討。國立成功大學交通管理學系碩士論文。
二、 英文文獻
〔1〕 John Bodnar. (1995) Are older Americans dangerously driving into the sunset? Washington University Law Quarterly, p.1709-1740.
〔2〕 Elena Kulikov.(2010) The Social and Policy Predictors of Driving Mobility Among Older Adults. Journal of Aging & Social Policy, Vol.23, Issue 1.
〔3〕 C.G.B. (KIT) Mitchell. (2008) The Licensing of Older Drivers in Europe— A Case Study. Traffic Injury Prevention Vol.9, p.360-366.
〔4〕 Jim Langford,Michael Fitzharris,Sjaanie Koppel & Stuart Newsteaf. (2004) Effectiveness of Mandatory License Testing for Older Drivers in Reducing Crash Risk Among Urban Older Australian Drivers. Traffic Injury Prevention Vol.5, p.326-335.
〔5〕 Masao Ichikawa, Shinji Nakahara & Haruhiko Inada. (2015) Impact of Mandating a Driving Lesson for Older Drivers at License Renewal in Japan. Accident Analysis and Prevention, p.55-60.
〔6〕 Anu Siren, Liisa Hakamies-Blomqvist & Marjaana Lindeman. (2004) Driving Cessation and Health in Older Women. Journal of Applied Gerontology, Vol.23, Issue 1.
三、 相關網站
〔1〕 國家發展委員會https://www.ndc.gov.tw/Content_List.aspx?n=695E69E28C6AC7F3
〔2〕 中華民國交通部公路總局https://www.thb.gov.tw/page?node=6b8d246a-aeb4-4a05-9b9f-4783c946870b
〔3〕 內政部主計總處https://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4
〔4〕 衛生福利部臺東醫院https://www.tait.mohw.gov.tw/?aid=53&pid=81&page_name=detail&iid=115