以穩健最佳化分析電力收購之太陽能裝置容量問題 -以台灣企業為例

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研究生：	林資翰 Lin,Zih Han
論文名稱：	以穩健最佳化分析電力收購之太陽能裝置容量問題 -以台灣企業為例 A Robust Optimization Approach to Solar Power Installation Capacity under Feed-in Tariff Policy: A Case of Taiwan Enterprises
指導教授：	王小璠 Wang, Hsiao Fan
口試委員:	巫木誠 Wu, Muh Cherng 張國浩 Chang, Kuo Hao
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 工業工程與工程管理學系 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
論文出版年：	2016
畢業學年度：	104
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	50
中文關鍵詞：	Robust-COIM 、收購電價、穩健最佳化、太陽光電系統、風險偏好
外文關鍵詞：	Robust-COIM, Feed-in Tariff, Robust Optimization, Solar Photovoltaic System, Risk Preference
相關次數：	點閱：2 下載：0
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基於永續社會的發展，再生能源的發展已經是各國所關注的議題。許多國家皆提出再生能源發展政策以推廣及提升再生能源的普及。其中，太陽能是一個極具發展潛力的再生能源。藉由再生能源收購政策(FIT)，政府對欲裝置太陽能光電系統的民眾進行補助，並透過收購契約的簽訂，保證以高於電力市場的收購價格進行電力收購。對於民眾而言，此太陽能光電系統不但成為一個具有報酬價值的投資規畫，更是具有減少碳排放的環保效益。因此，本研究的目的是幫助太陽能光電系統的投資者評估此投資可能的報酬及風險。而為了達成經濟及環境的助益，本研究將提出確定性的約束最佳化裝置模型(COIM)，在政府給定的收購條件下，幫助投資人決定最佳的太陽能裝置容量。
為了找到影響投資效益的重要因子，本研究對太陽能投資的相關參數進行敏感度分析，參數則包含了裝置成本、維護成本、發電量及折現率等等。由於太陽能的發電量具高度的不確定性，因此本研究考慮此不確定因素，從確定性模式延伸至不確定性模式，延伸為穩健性之約束最佳化裝置模型(ROBUST-COIM)，應用穩健最佳化提供投資人更穩健的投資規畫。此穩健最佳化模型已應用於台灣的某私人企業進行模式的驗證及分析，並能依照不同決策者的風險偏好給予不同的投資建議。研究結果顯示不同風險偏好的投資人，其最佳裝置容量也有所不同。藉由淨現值、投資報酬率及回收期等評估指標，本研究為私人企業提供一個穩健的太陽能投資裝置容量，最大化此裝置投資效益。

Solar power is a renewable energy that has a potential for development. The government of Taiwan has implemented a policy to subsidize individuals installing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems through financial assistance and buy-back assurance (e.g., the feed-in tariff scheme). Installing solar PV systems is considered economical because it enables people to make profit. In addition, using such system has environmental benefits because it reduces carbon emissions. This study aims to assist installers evaluate the profitability and potential risks of this long-term investment. A deterministic model called constraint optimal installation model (COIM) is primarily proposed to determine the optimal installation capacity under a given guaranteed price for a specific time period.
Sensitivity analysis is conducted on parameters such that the most critical factors affecting profitability can be identified. Based on these factors, an extension to a robust optimization model, namely, Robust–COIM, has been developed to evaluate potential risks and uncertainties such that a robust investment will be provided. The robust model has been applied to an enterprise in Taiwan. Furthermore, two types of risk preference of decision makers are analyzed and compared to each other. Results have shown that the proposed model is able to recommend a robust installation capacity subject to the risk preference of a decision maker.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT    I
中文摘要    II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT    III
FIGURE CAPTIONS    VI
TABLE CAPTIONS    VII
LIST OF NOTATIONS    VIII
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION    1
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION    1
1.2 RESEARCH PURPOSES    2
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW    4
2.1 FEED-IN TARIFF POLICY    4
2.2 SOLAR PV SYSTEM    6
2.3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS    7
2.4 MULTI-OBJECTIVE PROGRAM    9
2.5 ROBUST OPTIMIZATION    11
2.6 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION    14
CHAPTER 3 PROPOSED CONSTRAINED OPTIMAL INSTALLATION MODEL (COIM) IN A CERTAIN ENVIRONMENT    16
3.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT    16
3.2 PROBLEM FRAMEWORK    17
3.3 THE PROPOSED OPTIMIZATION MODEL-COIM    19
3.3.1 Notations    19
3.3.2 The Objectives    20
3.3.3 Constraints and Restrictions    23
3.3.4 Numerical Example and Sensitivity Analysis    24
3.4 SUMMARY    29
CHAPTER 4     THE ROBUST MODEL IN AN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT- ROBUST-COIM    31
4.1 THE PROBLEM STATEMENT    31
4.2 THE PROPOSED ROBUST OPTIMIZATION MODEL – ROBUST COIM    32
4.2.1 Notations    32
4.2.2 The Objectives    32
4.2.3 Model Formulation    34
4.3 SUMMARY    35
CHAPTER 5     CASE STUDY BY ROBUST-COIM    36
5.1 BACKGROUND DESCRIPTION    36
5.2 EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS    38
5.3 SUMMARY    47
CHAPTER 6     CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK    48
6.1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION    48
6.2 FUTURE WORK    49
REFERENCES    50


                                

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