本文章使用國立清華大學計算機與通訊中心之轉系申請記錄檔合併校務研究中心提供之 2012-2018 年學生畢業問卷資料，估計具備較高經濟動機或興趣動機的學生是否掌握更多轉系機會。並且，本文也針對主要的兩大入學管道的相關議題，亦即個人申請與考試分發做分類進行分析。結果顯示，具備動機的學生確實更有機會在系務會議中雀屏中選。平均而言，當經濟動機的自評分數上升一個層級時（例如：從同意到非常同意），合格率將提升約 25%。而興趣動機的自評分數上升一個層級約提升 55% 的合格率。第一年成績的百分位數被使用作為第一年成績的衡量值。結果顯示一點的百分位數上升約能提升 6% 的合格率，也就是十點的上升將帶來 79%的影響。動機與成績都對合格率有顯著的影響，但何者影響更大取決於特定年度申請者的成績分布。

This study uses the logfile of application to major transfer of National Tsing Hua University (NTHU) from the Computer & Communication Cen-ter in NTHU, combined with the graduation questionnaire from Center for Institutional Research to estimate if students with higher economic motiva-tion or interest motivation hold more chances to be accepted. Issues about two main admission channels, which are Individual Application (IA) and Ad-mission via Examination (AE), are discussed as well. The result shows that students with such motivations are indeed more likely to be selected by the departmental committee. On average, as the self-valuation for the economic motivation increases by 1 level (e.g. from agree to strongly agree), the probability to be accepted will increase by about 25 %. While a 1-level increase on self-valuation for the interest motivation roughly increase the probability by 55 %. Percentile Rank (PR) of the first year is used as the measure of the grade at the first year. The result shows that a 1-point increase on PR value will raise the probability by about 6%, which means about 79% for 10-point increase. Both motivations and grades have significant impact on the probability to be accepted, but which dominates will depend on the distribution of the PR value of applicants at specific year.

[1] M. Wiswall and B. Zafar, “Determinants of college major choice: Identification using an information experiment,” The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 82, no. 2, pp. 791–824, 2015.
[2] S. W. Hemelt, “The college double major and subsequent earnings,” Education Eco-nomics, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 167–189, 2010.
[3] C. A. Malgwi, M. A. Howe, and P. A. Burnaby, “Influences on students’ choice of college major,” Journal of education for business, vol. 80, no. 5, pp. 275–282, 2005.
[4] C. Astorne-Figari and J. D. Speer, “Drop out, switch majors, or persist? the con-trasting gender gaps,” Economics Letters, vol. 164, pp. 82–85, 2018.
[5] M. C. Berger, “Predicted future earnings and choice of college major,” ILR Review, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 418–429, 1988.
[6] R. A. Easterlin, “Preferences and prices in choice of career: The switch to business, 1972–1987,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 1–34, 1995.
[7] N. C. Ware and V. E. Lee, “Sex differences in choice of college science majors,” American Educational Research Journal, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 593–614, 1988.
[8] E. Blom, B. Cadena, and B. J. Keys, “Investment over the business cycle: Insights from college major choice,” Journal of Labor Economics (Just accepted), 2020.
[9] C. Astorne-Figari and J. D. Speer, “Are changes of major major changes? the roles of grades, gender, and preferences in college major switching,” Economics of Education Review, vol. 70, pp. 75–93, 2019.
[10] P. Bordon and C. Fu, “College-major choice to college-then-major choice,” The Re-view of economic studies, vol. 82, no. 4, pp. 1247–1288, 2015.
[11] J. Meyer, K. Leuze, and S. Strauss, “Individual achievement, person-major fit, or social expectations: Why do students switch majors in german higher education?,” Research in Higher Education, pp. 1–26, 2021.
[12] T. T. Ishitani and L. D. Flood, “Student transfer-out behavior at four-year institu-tions,” Research in Higher Education, vol. 59, no. 7, pp. 825–846, 2018.
[13] F. Belloc, A. Maruotti, and L. Petrella, “How individual characteristics affect uni-versity students drop-out: a semiparametric mixed-effects model for an italian case study,” Journal of applied Statistics, vol. 38, no. 10, pp. 2225–2239, 2011.
[14] C. Hui Ping and R. Meng Shya, “A qualitative research of career decision mak-ing process of college students who changed their majors,” Bulletin of Educational Psychology, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 41–65, 2000.
[15] W. Shin Ken and L. Cheng, “The evaluation on educational quality and its rele-vant factors: An empirical study of education-majored students,” Journal of Taiwan Studies, no. 4, pp. 79–116, 2008.
[16] H. Hsiao Chin, L. Da Sen, and C. Pei Ying, “Crossing gender boundaries: Gender and college majors in taiwan,” Taiwanese Journal of Sociology, vol. 48, pp. 95–149, 2011.
[17] H.-H. Wang and C.-C. Huang, “The application of self-determination theory on students＇career choice and learning outcomes under the multiple colleg admission system,” Journal of Research in Education Sciences, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 1–27, 2010.
[18] A. Belloni, V. Chernozhukov, and Y. Wei, “Post-selection inference for general-ized linear models with many controls,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 606–619, 2016.
[19] S. Kwon, S. Han, and S. Lee, “A small review and further studies on the lasso,” Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 1077–1088, 2013.
[20] G. C. Cawley and N. L. Talbot, “On over-fitting in model selection and subsequent selection bias in performance evaluation,” The Journal of Machine Learning Re-search, vol. 11, pp. 2079–2107, 2010.