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研究生: 戴慧欣
Tai, Hui-Hsin
論文名稱: 對市場風險、信用風險及利率風險的聯合模型校準
Joint Model Calibration of Market Risk, Credit Risk and Interest Rate Risk
指導教授: 韓傳祥
Han, Chuan-Hsiang
口試委員: 牛繼聖
吳慶堂
徐南蓉
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科技管理學院 - 計量財務金融學系
Department of Quantitative Finance
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 65
中文關鍵詞: 聯合模型校準隨機波動率模型違約強度利率風險蒙地卡羅法
外文關鍵詞: joint model calibration, stochastic volatility model, default intensity, interest rate risk, Monte Carlo method
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  • Recent literature has highlighted joint movements between Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread and stock price volatility (or stock option implied volatility). The impact of the credit risk factor on out-of-money stock option price is documented. Some dynamically consistent framework have been proposed for the joint evaluation and estimation of stock options and CDS spreads written on the same reference name in order to integrate both market information.

    This thesis provides a new methodology for joint evaluation of stock option price, CDS spread and bond prices. A two-step Monte Carlo procedure is employed for calibration to the term structure of implied volatilities. An approximated default intensity rate under the reduced form model is employed for credit risk calibration. A closed-form of zero coupon bond price under Vasicek model is employed for interest rate risk calibration. Combinations of these calibration methods allow a robust and efficient estimation for the joint dynamics of risk factors from the equity market, the credit market and the bond market. Our investigation discloses the importance of cross-market information to fit the implied volatility surfaces by means of a joint dynamic model which include market risk, credit risk and the interest risk.


    Abstract i Acknowledgements ii Table of Contents iii Chapter 1 Introduction and Motivation 1 1.1 Introduction to Credit Market and Bond Market 1 1.2 Cross Information of Markets 4 Chapter 2 Calibration to Bond Yield 7 2.1 Introduction of Bond Yield 7 2.1.1 Interest Rate Model 8 2.2 Calibration Result by Optimization 10 Chapter 3 Calibration to CDS prices 15 3.1 Introduction of CDS 15 3.1.1 Reduced Form Model 16 3.2 Default Intensity Approximation 17 3.3 Parameter Estimation by MLE 18 Chapter 4 Calibration to Stock Option Prices 21 4.1 Corrected Fourier Transform Method 21 4.2 Martingale Control Variate 24 4.3 A Two-Step Monte Carlo Calibration 26 Chapter 5 Joint Calibration 29 5.1 Correlation between Stock Market and Credit Market 29 5.2 Joint Calibration of Market Risk and Credit Risk 32 5.2.1 Vulnerable Call Option 32 5.2.2 Calibration Result by Optimization 35 5.2.3 Implied Volatility Surface Fitting 39 5.3 Joint Calibration of Interest Rate Risk and Market Risk 45 5.4 Joint Calibration of Market Risk, Credit Risk and Interest Rate Risk 47 5.5 Case of Put Option: Joint Calibration to Stock Option Prices and Corporate Bond Yields 52 5.5.1 Calibration of Vulnerable Put Option 52 5.5.2 Joint Calibration to American Put Option and Corporate Bond Yield 55 5.6 Summary and Financial Implication 57 Chapter 6 Conclusion 61 Chapter 7 Future Works 63 Reference 64

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