研究生: |
鄧凱方 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
金融自由化與經濟景氣對所得過度敏感性之再探討 |
指導教授: | 周若珍 |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
理學院 - 統計學研究所 Institute of Statistics |
論文出版年: | 2007 |
畢業學年度: | 95 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 36 |
中文關鍵詞: | 恆常所得假說 、過度敏感性 、核迴歸 、門檻模型 、流動性限制 |
外文關鍵詞: | Permanent Income Hypothesis, Excess sensitivity, Kernel regression, Threshold model, Liquidity constraint |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
分享至: |
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近代消費相關研究,恆常所得假說(Permanent Income Hypothesis, PIH)一直為最主要的理論基礎。然而自Flavin(1981)以降之實證均顯示消費對所得有過度敏感性的現象。此過度敏感性,有一說法認為係肇因於流動性限制致使消費者借貸行為受到拘束(binding)。在此一假設下,詹維玲與胡勝正(1996)以及郭炳伸與鍾景婷(2002)分別自金融自由化以及經濟景氣的角度,探討台灣所得的過度敏感性現象。實證結果顯示,金融自由化後所得的過度敏感性較之前來得微弱;此外經濟景氣對所得過度敏感性現象則有不對稱的影響:經濟景氣活絡時,不存在有過度敏感性的現象,但在經濟景氣衰退時,所得過度敏感性相當顯著。本文進一步利用變動參數模型(time-varying parameter model)以及門檻模型(threshold model)分析探討在金融自由化前後,經濟景氣對所得的過度敏感性現象之影響。利用1971Q1~2000Q2的數據之實證研究發現,在金融自由化之前,經濟景氣對所得的過度敏感性存在有明顯地不對稱效果;在金融自由化之後,雖然無法論定此一不對稱性效果是否依舊存在,然而可以肯定的是,在經濟景氣疲弱時之過度敏感性現象較金融自由化之前來得微弱。然若將數據持續期間延至2004Q4,則在金融自由化後,不對稱性效果又復出現,且其效果無異於金融自由化之前甚或是更為嚴重,顯示2000年末期以來的科技網路泡沫化對經濟景氣造成嚴重之影響,致使流動性限制回升至金融自由化之前的程度。
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