本篇研究採用類似美國核管會USNRC所建立之CSAU方法論流程，進行核二廠快速暫態不準度研究。研究流程可歸納為三部分，分別為: 程式分析流程建立、暫態模擬及現象辨認、和不準度量化分析。研究所採用的程式集包含了BWRHB、SIMULATE-3、SLICK、RETRAN等程式，其適用性在國內核能相關研究單位報告中，已充分驗證程式集之分析能力並取得管制單位的認證，在爐心營運與燃料重新裝填、安全分析相關研究皆能充分支援，為國內核電廠安全分析不可或缺的軟體。欲得到完整的熱限值分析，首先從核二廠熱水流參數計算開始，建立出核二廠RETRAN-3D基本模式起始值，並由SIMULATE-3產生特定燃耗點的中子動態檔，模擬中子在爐心行為。接著以RETRAN模擬暫態事故的過程，按模擬結果去進行現象辨認，決定出PIRT(Phenomena Identif- ication and Ranking Table)的參數作為分析依據。在不準度統計的量化上使用了兩種統計的分析方法：第一種以母數統計法為基礎，改變單一參數做靈敏度分析，經整合各參數不準度後推得95%信心水準下母體的熱限值；第二種無母數統計以Monte carlo法同時改變所有的參數，進行多組計算後透過排序得到邊界熱限值。最後將兩種不同統計方法下得到的熱限值做整合比較。

The study presents the approach of CPR transient uncertainty for KSNPS, which is similar to CSAU methodology. This procedure can be reduced to three parts: Constructing the procedure of code analysis, transient simulation and phenomena identification, and quantify- ing the uncertainty. The codes used in the study includes the BWRHB, SIMULATE-3, SLICK, RETRAN, in which the applicability and capability of the codes have been confirmed by the researching institute and also licensed by the ROC AEC’s liscense. These codes are essential to core management, core reload, and safety analysis. To perform the critical power ratio (CPR), we start at the thermal-hydraulic parameters calculation to establish the nominal model initial values, and then get the neutron kinetic files at specific burn-up point by using SIMULATE-3 to simulate the neutron behavior in core. Finally, we run the transient case by using Retran code to simulate the transient. According to the transient results, we can perform phenomena identification and determine the PIRT. In the uncertainty analysis, two statistic methods have been used. The first one is based on the population parameters. By varying the individual parameter in the PIRT, we can quantify all uncertainties to get the population CPR at 95% confidence level. The second method is based on the non-parameters statistics, which uses Montecarlo method to vary all parameters in the PIRT simultaneously. After performing certain calculations, the maximum critical power ratio can be obtained by ranking the calculation results. Finally, we compare the two results which are based on different statistcs.

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