研究生: |
林家瑋 Chia-Wei Lin |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
我國中央銀行貨幣政策反應函數與政策偏好 The Monetary Policy Reaction Function and the Policy Preference in Taiwan |
指導教授: |
黃朝熙
Chao-Hsi Huang |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
論文出版年: | 2006 |
畢業學年度: | 94 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 53 |
中文關鍵詞: | 貨幣政策反應函數 、泰勒法則 、缺口模型 、一般動差法 |
相關次數: | 點閱:2 下載:0 |
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本研究以我國1981年1月至2005年12年的月資料,以一般動差法估計我國中央銀行在不同總裁任期內之貨幣政策反應函數,觀察不同央行總裁所偏重的貨幣政策目標為何,並且估計延伸型態的貨幣政策反應函數,即缺口模型,以比較基本模型與缺口模型的估計結果。實證結果顯示無論央行使用的貨幣政策工具為利率或貨幣數量,長期而言我國央行對於物價的穩定較為重視,此項結果與梁發進(1991)以及劉完淳(2000)的估計結果一致,但在利率反應函數物價穩定係數估計值方面,梁發進(1991),劉完淳(2000)與本文的估計結果若與原始的泰勒法則相比較,物價穩定的係數均偏低,顯示相較於美國聯準會反應函數中對於物價穩定的調整方面,我國央行在穩定物價的調整程度上接近美國1979年以前的貨幣政策。1980年代俞國華張繼正總裁時期,央行除了重視物價穩定外,也相當重視產出以及國際收支的穩定。1990年代謝森中梁國樹許遠東總裁時期,央行除了重視物價的穩定外,也相當重視匯率穩定與國際收支的平衡。1990年代末期,2000年代初期彭淮南總裁時期,央行重視的政策目標為物價的穩定,此項結果無論使用何種模型估計,得到的結論均一致。對於我國央行貨幣政策反應函數中重視的貨幣政策目標,本研究與梁發進(1991)以及劉完淳(2000)的研究結果均一致,但相較於劉完淳(2000)的子樣本期間樣本數過少,導致估計的調整後的判定係數偏低,本文在子樣本期間的切割上提供較為適當的切割時點,以得到更有效的估計結果。
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