在許多中高所得國家，生育率已降至極低的水準。這種現象在台灣尤其嚴重，
自2003 年以來，台灣的生育率持續低於每名婦女生育1.3 胎的水準，並在
2010 年達到更加嚴重的0.895。伴隨著低生育率，勞動年齡人口的減少、老年
撫養比的增加及婦女生兒育女數量的減少，可能導致長期的社會和經濟問題。
最終，低生育率也將導致總人口減少。

學界嘗試以性別不平等來解釋台灣的低生育率，認為在職涯發展和傳統家
庭責任的性別不平等，給想要生兒育女的女性帶來了雙重負擔。在政策方面，
台灣政府試圖通過生育政策來提高生育率，其中最特別的是2009 年推出的育
嬰留職停薪政策。然迄今為止，尚未有統計結果能表明傳統家庭與家庭義務降
低了台灣婦女的生育率。也沒有研究試圖評估育嬰留職停薪或任何其他國家生
育政策與台灣生育表現的因果關係。此外，大部分的學術文獻對育嬰留職停薪
與生育率間的關係仍未有定論，且就方法論而言，也尚不清楚該如何判定該政
策對生育率的影響。
在本論文中，我們旨在找出性別不平等是否是台灣低生育率的原因，以及
育嬰留職停薪政策是否對生育率有影響。本論文圍繞三篇研究論文展開：家務
分工對實際生育率影響的實證評估；育嬰留職停薪政策對生育率影響的系統性
回顧；以及育嬰留職停薪政策對生育率的因果關係之實證評估。在第一篇和第
三篇論文中，我們使用計量經濟方法分別就家務分工和育嬰留職停薪資格來預
測家庭是否生育下一胎。在第二篇論文中，我們使用系統性的回顧方法來尋找
和綜整所有關於育嬰假政策對生育率的因果推論的最佳可用證據。

在第一篇論文中，我們發現已有1 胎或更多胎的已婚夫婦之間的家務分工
情形對其後續的生育決策有很大影響；其中家務分工越平等的家庭，生育率越
高。在第二篇論文中，我們開發了一個新的概念和框架來分解不同的育嬰假政
策對生育率所造成的影響。我們也認為，某些型態的政策影響相較其他類型的
政策，更能為生育政策的制定者帶來政策意涵。根據我們所提出的新框架去調
查既有證據的結果，發現若那些研究所探討的是育嬰假政策效果是較廣義的，
則其所呈現的便是正向的因果關係；若研究所探討的僅侷限在叫狹義的政策效
果，則其所呈現的便是無效的政策效果。然而，這結果僅適用在已有進行相關
研究的西方國家。在第三篇論文中，我們使用我們的框架來評估育嬰留職停薪
對生育率的政策效果。與我們在西方國家的研究所發現的相反，我們發現育嬰
留職停薪並沒有對始終處於工作狀態女性的生育選擇有影響，卻可能提升了婚
後有進出過職場女性對生育第二胎的選擇。

我們的研究結果為全球和台灣的低生育率研究做出了一些貢獻。首先，我
們從數據面證實了性別平等理論作為台灣低生育率解釋的有效性；其次，我們
為分析生育政策對生育率的影響提供了一個易於理解的框架，這反映了政策制
定者的當務之急；第三，我們證明了育嬰假政策對西方國家的生育率具有持續的正面影響；第四，儘管育嬰留職停薪政策是個成本高昂的政策，但我們證明
其對台灣生育率的影響是有限的。

Across many high- and middle-income countries, fertility rates have declined to unsustainably low levels. This phenomenon is particularly acute in Taiwan, where fertility has been below the “lowest-low” level of 1.3 births per woman since 2003 and hit the extremely low level of 0.895 in 2010. These trends may lead to long-term social and economic problems due to the narrowing of the working-age population and increases in old-age dependency ratios, and women are having fewer children than they desire. Ultimately, the persistence of below-replacement fertility will lead to population decline.

On the academic side, theorists have attempted to explain low fertility in Taiwan in terms of gender inequity, arguing that gender-equitable career ambitions and gender-inequitable family expectations have placed a double burden on women who want to have children. On the policy side, the Taiwanese government has attempted to increase fertility through pro-natal policies, the most expensive of which has been the Parental Leave Allowance (PLA) introduced in 2009. There is heretofore no micro-level statistical evidence that traditional familial and domestic obligations reduce women’s fertility in Taiwan. There is also no research attempting to evaluate the causal impact of the PLA or any other national pro-natal policy on fertility in Taiwan. Moreover, the wider academic literature is unclear on whether parental leave impacts fertility, and is methodologically unclear on how to identify the effect of leave policies on fertility.

In this thesis, we aim to find out whether gender inequity is a cause of low fertility in Taiwan, and whether parental leave policies have an impact on fertility. This thesis is structured around three research papers: an empirical evaluation of the effect of housework division on realised fertility; a systematic review of the effects of parental leave policies on fertility; and an empirical evaluation of the causal impact of the PLA on fertility. In the first and third papers, we use
econometric methods to predict next births based on housework division and PLA eligibility respectively. In the second paper, we use systematic review methods to find and synthesise all the best available evidence of the causal impact of leave on fertility.

In the first paper, we find that the division of housework between married couples of parity 1 or higher has a large impact on subsequent fertility, with more equal divisions being associated with higher fertility. In the second paper, we develop a new conceptual and methodological framework to decompose the different impacts of leave policies on fertility. We also argue that certain types of effects are more informative to pro-natal policy-makers than others. Surveying
the available evidence in terms of our novel framework, we find that studies identifying a broad class of effects consistently report positive relationships, and those reporting null relationships are only identifying a narrow class of effects of marginal interest to policy-makers. However, the findings are restricted to the Western countries in which these studies have been conducted. In the third paper we use our framework to evaluate the causal impact of the PLA on fertility.
Contrary to our findings in Western settings, we find that the PLA did not increase fertility for women who were always working, but may have increased second births among women who had been in and out of work since marriage.

Our findings make several contributions to research on low fertility, both globally and in Taiwan. Firstly, we empirically confirm the validity of gender equity theory as an explanation of low fertility in Taiwan. Secondly, we provide an intelligible framework for analysing the effects of pro-natal policies on fertility, that reflects the imperatives of policy-makers. Thirdly, we show that parental leave policies have a consistently positive impact on fertility in Western societies, and fourthly we show that the PLA had a limited impact on fertility in Taiwan, despite its cost.

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