研究生: |
葉翔渝 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
我國貨幣政策反應函數之非對稱性 The Asymmetry of Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Taiwan |
指導教授: | 黃朝熙 |
口試委員: | |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
科技管理學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
論文出版年: | 2008 |
畢業學年度: | 96 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 49 |
中文關鍵詞: | 反應函數 、非對稱 、門檻模型 |
相關次數: | 點閱:3 下載:0 |
分享至: |
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對於貨幣政策反應函數(monetary policy reaction function)的研究,有助於我們了解央行過去的政策調整方向,而反應函數的研究在Taylor(1993)發現的利率法則(Taylor’s rule)後,後續文獻大多與泰勒法則相關或其延伸比較,但這些文獻皆有一共同假設,即假設估計之反應函數為對稱性反應函數,而近一、二十年來的研究,部分學者另發現反應函數存在非對稱性,如Shen and Hakes(1995)針對台灣央行在1971:M1至1991:M4這段期間的資料研究中,得出央行的貨幣政策反應會隨著通貨膨脹程度不同而存在非對稱行為。本文即延伸探討央行的反應函數是否會依不同的經濟變數而存在非對稱性。
本文利用Hansen(2000)提出之方法分析我國的反應函數是否存在門檻效果(threshold effect)。實證資料分為季資料1970:Q4至2007:Q1和月資料1971:M1至2007:M6,並同時考慮不同的門檻變數,如產出成長率、產出缺口、匯率變動率、通貨膨脹率,亦同時考慮重貼現率與金融業拆款利率為貨幣政策的操作變數。
本文的實證結論發現,不論在季資料或月資料中,除了在季資料中以「產出成長率」為門檻變數、央行之政策操作變數為重貼現率時,得出央行會依產出成長率程度高低而存在政策的非對稱性外,其餘的門檻變數假設皆無法明確地支持央行的政策行為反應存在非對稱性。
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